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Data & numbers
Everyday Odds: Thinking in Probabilities
Base rates, false positives, coincidences, expected value, and calibration — five tools that repair the risk gauge you carry into clinics, casinos, and headlines.
Included free with All-Access — $20/year for the whole catalog.
What you'll walk away with
Why fear runs on vividness while the world runs on frequencies — and the film-versus-frequency check that recalibrates any scare.
Base rates and the false-positive machine: why a 99%-accurate test for a rare condition is usually wrong when it says yes — counted with a picture, no formula.
Coincidence literacy: the 23-person birthday room, million-to-one events happening daily, and why randomness clusters.
Expected value with its warning label (ruin breaks the average) and calibration: grading forecasts — and your own decisions — by track records, not single outcomes.
6 parts · 24 min
2
Base Rates: The Question Before the Question
4 min
4 min
3
The False-Positive Machine
5 min
5 min
4
Coincidences and What Randomness Really Looks Like
4 min
4 min
5
Expected Value, and When to Ignore It
4 min
4 min
6
Forecasts, Calibration, and Deciding Under Uncertainty
4 min
4 min
Bonus: one-page cheat sheet
Every part's key points, printable — included when you unlock
Read Part 1 free — no account needed. $1 unlocks the remaining 5 parts plus the cheat sheet, forever.
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$1
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